Now that the General Election is over, we can rake over the coals of the figures in our home constituency of Foyle which proved to be one of the most anticipated – and most surprising fights of the campaign.
We are fortunate in that we have two elections relatively close together where we can attempt to compare and contrast the numbers – the General Election in December and the May Council elections. First, some housekeeping, both use different electoral systems, Westminster being FPTP and Council being PR. Still, some interesting tid bits to be found.
Naturally, the fight in Foyle came down to the SDLP and SF – the latter having snatched the seat away in a shock result in 2017 by a minute margin. It was thought this time around the race would be too close to call, and local polls reflected this. No-one expected that the SDLP would romp home adding 8,794 votes to its 2017 total, against an almost equivalent drop in the Sinn Fein vote (-8,485).
There are only three parties who have had an increase in their vote since the last Westminster election – SDLP, Alliance (+420) and Aontu who contested the election for the first time.
What is much clearer is the pattern of support from the May elections for Council to the 2019 General Election. Some parties dropped significantly in one a number of months. Here are the results of each party from the May Derry City and Strabane District Council election and the difference from their GE result:
SF 17,062 (-7291 on WM)
SDLP 15,458 (+11,423 on WM)
DUP 8,923 (-4,150 on WM)
UUP 4,126 (-3,038 on WM)
PBP 3,590 (-2,258 on WM)
ALL 2,852 (-1,585 on WM)
AON 1,032 (+1,000 on WM)
Clearly, only two parties have increased their vote since May – the SDLP and Aontu. Between all those who lost votes, 18,322 have evaporated. Aontu have added 1,000 to their tally from May, no small feat for a new party, yet a party that had achieved two seats in Council – People Before Profit, has seen its vote drop massively – down 37.1% in only eight months would indicate a very unstable base.
Even the mighty Alliance surge failed to materialise in Foyle, losing 1,585 votes since May. The UUP are an enigma given half of their council team is based in the Derg ward which is in the West Tyrone constituency.
Some genuine food for thought for parties in Foyle.
beyondthepillars 